The Pew Research Center, a leading authority in public opinion polling, recently released data that could have marked a significant victory for former President Donald Trump and his complex relationship with Latino voters. According to Pew, Trump secured 48% of the Latino vote in the 2024 presidential election, the highest percentage ever recorded by a Republican nominee and a notable 12-point increase from his 2020 performance. However, Trump’s recent actions may be undermining this achievement.
Latinos constituted 10% of Trump’s coalition, up from 7% in 2020, with Latino men supporting a Republican for the first time. Trump even managed to increase his support among Latinas by 13 percentage points, a swing larger than that among Latino men. These statistics highlight a shift in Latino sentiment, driven by dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party’s focus on policies perceived as ineffective in improving their lives.
Trump’s Immigration Policies: A Double-Edged Sword
Despite these gains, Trump’s aggressive immigration policies are now threatening to alienate the very demographic that helped bolster his numbers. Instead of targeting recent immigrants, Trump’s administration has focused on sweeping raids in areas like Los Angeles, the heart of the U.S. Latino community. A Times analysis of data from the Deportation Data Project at UC Berkeley Law revealed that nearly 70% of those arrested by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) from June 1 to June 10 had no criminal convictions.
These actions are reminiscent of California’s political landscape in the 1980s and 1990s, where Republicans initially gained Latino support but later lost it due to xenophobic policies. The passage of Proposition 187 in 1994, which sought to deny public services to undocumented immigrants, ultimately backfired, leading to a Democratic stronghold in the state.
Historical Parallels and Political Consequences
The current situation mirrors past missteps by California Republicans, who squandered Latino support through harsh immigration measures. Ronald Reagan, a former California governor and U.S. president, famously remarked that Latinos were Republicans who simply didn’t know it yet. His administration’s 1986 amnesty was a missed opportunity for the GOP to solidify Latino support during the “Decade of the Hispanic.”
Instead, California’s Republican leaders pursued policies that alienated Latino voters, culminating in a political shift that saw Democrats gain a supermajority in the state. This historical lesson seems to be lost on Trump, whose current deportation strategy is causing a similar backlash.
Growing Dissent Among Latino Republicans
Resistance to Trump’s tactics isn’t limited to Democrats. Prominent Latino Republicans, such as California Assemblymember Suzette Martinez Valladares and State Senator Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh, have voiced their concerns. They, along with other GOP legislators, penned a letter urging Trump to focus on deporting individuals with criminal records rather than conducting broad raids that instill fear in communities.
“When proud conservatives like Ochoa Bogh and Valladares are disturbed by Trump’s deportation deluge, you know the president’s blowing it with Latinos.”
Their apprehension reflects broader unease within the Latino community. A recent Pew report found that nearly half of Latinos fear deportation of someone they know, a sentiment shared by 31% of Latino Republicans, compared to 61% of white Republicans.
The Road Ahead: A Shift in Latino Political Power
Trump’s decision to sue the Los Angeles City Council and Mayor Karen Bass over the city’s “sanctuary” policies has only intensified the divide. By targeting Los Angeles, Trump has inadvertently galvanized a city known for its robust immigrant rights activism and Latino political influence.
As mass raids potentially spread to other regions, communities are preparing to resist. Many Latinos initially supported Trump out of frustration with the Democratic Party, but his recent actions have prompted a reevaluation of his intentions. The fear of deportation has become so pervasive that some are carrying passports as a precaution.
Giovanni Lopez, a 38-year-old Santa Ana resident, epitomizes the growing discontent. At a recent protest, he expressed support for deporting criminals but criticized the indiscriminate nature of current operations. “You gotta stand up for regular raza,” he stated, highlighting the community’s resolve to defend its members.
As the political landscape evolves, Trump’s approach may lead to a resurgence of Latino activism reminiscent of the Proposition 187 era. The question remains whether the former president will adjust his strategy or continue down a path that risks alienating a crucial voter base.
In the coming months, the impact of Trump’s policies on Latino support will become clearer. For now, the former president’s actions serve as a cautionary tale of how quickly political gains can be undone by overreach and insensitivity.