Corn futures managed to recover from their overnight lows on Tuesday, yet contracts ultimately closed with fractional to 3 1/2 cent losses. Despite the initial downturn, no deliveries were made against July futures overnight. The front month CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price remained steady at $3.92 3/4, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.
The latest Grain Crushings data revealed that 449.44 million bushels (mbu) of corn were used for ethanol production in May. This figure marks a significant 6.2% increase from April, although it remains 1.31% lower compared to May 2024. For the marketing year through the first three quarters, the total stands at 4.08 billion bushels (bbu), which is 11 mbu above the same period last year.
Crop Progress and Condition Ratings
According to the latest Crop Progress data, the U.S. corn crop was 8% silking as of June 29, surpassing the average pace of 6%. Condition ratings improved by 3 points to 73% good/excellent, while the Brugler500 index saw a 6-point increase to 382. Notably, states such as Nebraska and South Dakota experienced a 16-point rise, Texas saw a 28-point improvement, and Iowa was 5 points better. However, states in the East showed weaker performance, with Ohio down 5 points, Illinois 4 points lower, and Indiana 1 point worse.
The 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) from NOAA predicts rainfall up to 1.5 inches in parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, while much of the rest of the Corn Belt is expected to receive only trace amounts. This variability in weather conditions could influence future crop conditions and market dynamics.
Global Market Influences
Internationally, Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has estimated the 2024/25 corn export total for the market year at 22 million metric tons (MMT), falling short of the 29.5 MMT exported in 2024. Meanwhile, StoneX has adjusted its estimate for Brazilian corn production to 136.1 MMT, reflecting a 2.1 MMT increase due to a boost in the second crop. ANEC has also revised its estimate for June Brazil exports to 566,435 metric tons, down from the previous 982,812 metric tons.
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.20, down 1/2 cent. Nearby Cash was $3.92 3/4, unchanged. Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.06, down 3 1/4 cents. Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22, down 3 1/2 cents. New Crop Cash was $3.80, down 3/4 cent.
Market Implications and Outlook
The current fluctuations in corn futures reflect a complex interplay of domestic crop conditions, international market pressures, and evolving weather patterns. As the U.S. corn crop progresses, market participants will closely monitor condition ratings and weather forecasts to gauge potential impacts on supply and pricing.
Looking ahead, the market will likely remain sensitive to developments in global trade dynamics, particularly with major exporters like Ukraine and Brazil adjusting their output and export estimates. Additionally, ethanol production trends will continue to play a crucial role in shaping demand for corn.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy.