Trump's Domestic Policy Bill Faces Crucial Test in Divided House

The influence of President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson is set to face a critical test as GOP leaders aim to secure a legislative victory by the July Fourth holiday. The challenge lies in the newly Senate-approved legislation, which must pass through the deeply divided House without amendments to meet the self-imposed deadline.

The Senate’s passage of the bill on Tuesday marked a significant win for Trump, who spent considerable effort rallying fellow Republicans around the multi-trillion-dollar package. This bill includes tax cuts and increased funding for the Pentagon and border security, alongside controversial spending cuts aimed at reducing the federal safety net.

House Dynamics and Political Challenges

Across the Capitol, House GOP leaders express confidence that the latest version of the bill can pass. However, significant political maneuvering will be necessary, as many House members continue to express dissatisfaction with the Senate’s amendments. Speaker Mike Johnson can afford to lose only three votes, and he is currently navigating a complex landscape of centrists and right-wing hardliners.

This pivotal week could define Trump’s second term, as the push to pass his agenda has been marred by GOP infighting. Some Republicans are concerned about the bill’s potential impact on the 2026 midterms. If passed, Trump and his allies believe it will solidify his legacy on border security and tax policy, fulfilling campaign promises such as no taxes on tips or overtime pay, while attempting to rein in federal spending.

Key Moments and Procedural Hurdles

The legislative battle has seen dramatic moments, including Senator Thom Tillis’s surprise decision not to seek reelection after opposing the bill. This decision followed Trump’s threat to support a primary challenger against him. Such high-stakes moments are expected to continue as the House reconvenes.

Before a final vote on the bill, the House must first pass a procedural vote known as a vote on the rule. Some conservatives threaten to rebel against this, posing a new challenge for Speaker Johnson. The House Rules Committee advanced the rule in the early hours of Wednesday after a lengthy session, with GOP Reps. Ralph Norman and Chip Roy joining Democrats in opposition.

Centrists and Hardliners: A Balancing Act

Johnson held a call with Dr. Mehmet Oz and the Republican Main Street Caucus, a group of centrist Republicans uneasy about the Senate’s health provisions. “There is a lot of angst and frustration,” one member noted, describing the mood within the caucus.

Centrists are also grappling with new provisions, such as the removal of Medicaid funding from Planned Parenthood, a goal for social conservatives but a point of contention for moderates. Meanwhile, Johnson must also address concerns from hardliners like Rep. Chip Roy, who argue the bill does not sufficiently reduce the US deficit.

Logistical Challenges and Next Steps

As of Tuesday evening, both Republican and Democratic leaders were working to ensure member attendance for the pivotal floor vote. Weather-related travel disruptions across the East Coast have complicated efforts, with some lawmakers struggling to return to Washington. Speaker Johnson acknowledged these challenges, noting the importance of monitoring weather conditions closely.

“We’re monitoring the weather closely. We have to figure that out,” Johnson said. “We’re not sure yet. There’s a lot of delays right now, so that’s part of the problem.”

The outcome of this legislative effort will have significant implications for Trump’s domestic policy agenda and the political landscape leading up to future elections. As the House prepares for this crucial vote, all eyes remain on the Capitol to see if the GOP can unite to deliver a victory for the president.